[Parametric analysis of survival in kidney transplantation]

Biparametric Weibull's model was used to analyze survival of 615 renal cadaveric allografts performed at our center from January 1980 to December 1992. The model adequately describes patient's well as immunological and total graft survival during the total follow-up period extending from the first to the 100th postoperative month. After logarithmic transformation of the coordinates, the survival function may be represented as a straight regression line whose parameters are those of the model. Four factors significantly influence total graft survival according to multivariate analyses using Cox's and Weibull's models: donor's age and sex, HLA-B+DR donor-recipient compatibility and immunosuppression. Both models are equally effective to uncover those factors but the overall statistical significance of Weibull's model is greater than that of Cox's model. Functional graft half-live calculated from the time of transplantation may be easily estimated from the values of several predictive variables.