Current and historical mortality from cancer and cardiovascular disease in relation to age: U.S. and world values

Data from the World Health Organization, U.S. Vital Statistics, the Historical Abstracts of the United States and the census of the United States were used to compare current world and states data on cancer death rate and age with historical data that shows the changing percentage of elderly. Current annual death rates from malignant neoplastic disease among the 73 countries for which data exist are highly correlated with the percent of the population > or = 60 yrs of age and a virtually identical relation exists presently among the 50 states of the U.S. The current world and states data provide a remarkably accurate snapshot of U.S. cancer death rates over the past century during which time the U.S. elderly population increased substantially. Data on U.S. lung cancer death rates since 1940 were similarly examined and these historical numbers also show good agreement with current values among countries that today span the same proportion of elderly that the U.S. had over this period. The agreement of current and historical CA death rate and age contrasts sharply with the picture that emerges when cardiovascular death rates and death rate from all causes are examined. The geographic and time invariance seen in the cancer data seems inconsistent with identical exposure to carcinogens and suggests that biological aging is an important intrinsic factor in cancer.