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Reconstruction of the seasonally varying contact rate for measles

M Kalivianakis1, S L Mous, J Grasman

  • 1Department of Mathematics, Agricultural University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.

Mathematical Biosciences
|December 1, 1994
PubMed

Insights

This study reconstructed the measles contact rate in New York City using the extended Kalman filter. The analysis revealed a seasonal pattern in the contact rate, improving parameters for the SEIR-model.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Measles incidence in New York City exhibits irregular yearly changes.
  • Understanding transmission dynamics is crucial for effective disease control.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To reconstruct the time-dependent contact rate of measles.
  • To analyze the seasonality of measles transmission.
  • To improve parameters within the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the extended Kalman filter for parameter estimation.
  • Reconstructed the contact rate from measles incidence data.
  • Applied the SEIR model to New York City data.

Main Results:

  • The time-dependent contact rate for measles was successfully reconstructed.
  • Despite irregular incidence data, the contact rate demonstrated a clear seasonal periodicity.
  • Improved parameter values for the SEIR model were obtained.

Conclusions:

  • Measles transmission in New York City is strongly influenced by seasonal factors.
  • The extended Kalman filter is effective for estimating time-varying epidemiological parameters.
  • Enhanced SEIR model parameters can improve predictions for measles outbreaks.

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