Relation between cold pressor test and development of hypertension based on 28-year follow-up

The present study examined the relation between blood pressure reactivity to cold stimulus and the subsequent development of hypertension based on a follow-up study from 1960 through 1988 of 824 normotensive participants (mean age, 35.8 +/- 10.8 years) in the Adult Health Study in Nagasaki, Japan. Hypertension developed in 343 individuals during the 28 years of follow-up, with a mean incidence rate of 24.6 per 10(3) person-years. Confounding variables, including attained age, resting systolic and diastolic blood pressures, and body mass index at baseline, were adjusted using a Poisson regression model. Systolic response was found to be an independent and significant predictor. The relative risk of hypertension for systolic hyperreactors was 1.37, with a 95% confidence interval of 1.10 to 1.71. Diastolic response was significant only when resting diastolic blood pressure was also considered. The cold pressor test appears to be useful if performed on middle-aged subjects older than 40 years at the time of examination, when hypertension is more prevalent. The current results support the hypothesis that hyperreactivity is a predictor of the development of hypertension.