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Related Experiment Videos

Estimating upper confidence limits for extra risk in quantal multistage models

A J Bailer1, R J Smith

  • 1Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Miami University, Oxford, Ohio 45056.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|December 1, 1994
PubMed
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Likelihood-based and parametric bootstrap methods offer reliable estimation for carcinogenic risk assessment. However, neither method is fully satisfactory for highly curved dose-response patterns in carcinogenicity experiments.

Area of Science:

  • Toxicology
  • Biostatistics
  • Risk Assessment

Background:

  • Multistage models are crucial for carcinogenic risk assessment, estimating tumor probability based on dose.
  • These models project excess cancer risk at low exposure levels, often below experimental doses.
  • Determining upper confidence limits on excess risk is essential for regulatory purposes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare the performance of likelihood-based and bootstrap methods for calculating 95% upper confidence limits on excess cancer risk.
  • To evaluate coverage probabilities and bias of these methods in a simulation study of carcinogenicity experiments.

Main Methods:

  • A simulation study was conducted to assess statistical methods for risk assessment.
  • The study compared a standard likelihood-based method with two bootstrap methods (nonparametric and parametric).

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  • Key metrics evaluated included coverage probabilities and bias of the estimated upper confidence limits.
  • Main Results:

    • The nonparametric bootstrap method showed lower coverage probabilities than the parametric bootstrap and likelihood-based methods.
    • Both parametric bootstrap and likelihood-based methods demonstrated better performance.
    • Relative bias was influenced by the curvature of the dose-response function.

    Conclusions:

    • The likelihood-based method generally provided the best coverage probabilities.
    • The parametric bootstrap method exhibited less bias and variability compared to the likelihood-based method.
    • Neither method is entirely satisfactory for highly curved dose-response patterns in carcinogenicity data.