The assessment of frequency estimates of Hae III-generated VNTR profiles in various reference databases

The likelihood of occurrence of 1964 Hae III-generated target DNA profiles was estimated using fixed bin frequencies from various regional and ethnic databases and the multiplication rule. The databases generally were from the following major categories: Black, Caucasian, Hispanic, Oriental, and American Indian. It was found that subdivision, either by ethnic group or by U.S. geographic region, within a major population group did not substantially affect forensic estimates of the likelihood of occurrence of a DNA profile. As expected, the greatest variation in estimates for within-group estimates was among American Indian databases. Because the greatest variation in statistical estimates occurs across-major population groups, in most cases, there will be no unfair bias applying general population database estimates. Therefore, based on empirical data, there is no demonstrable need for using alternate approaches, such as the ceiling approach, to derive statistical estimates. The current practice of using general population databases and the multiplication rule provides valid estimates of the likelihood of occurrence of a DNA profile.