A cross-national investigation of diet and bladder cancer

The existence of a large unexplained portion of attributable risk, and the marked variation in bladder cancer rates globally, have stimulated an interest in the role of nutrition in cancer of the urinary bladder. For this cross-national comparison study, we had complete data available for 50 countries. Using stepwise regression followed by general linear modelling, age-truncated (45-74 years), world-standardised, sex-specific bladder cancer mortality rates were regressed on an array of nutritional and socioeconomic independent variables in an effort to identify important predictors of bladder cancer mortality. Separate principal components analyses were used to summarise the nutritional and the socioeconomic (SES) variables. In the stepwise analyses, using food scores expressed in kcal/day per capita (as opposed to the nutritional components), total fat consistently entered the model first, and explained the greatest share of variability (R2) for both males and females. General linear models were fitted that included total fat, tobacco, alcohol, the three SES components (comprising seven socioeconomic predictors) and two food categories found significant in stepwise modelling, roots/tubers and vegetable oil. The R2 values were 0.84 for male rates and 0.77 for female rates, meaning that these study factors account for 84% of bladder cancer mortality in men and 77% in women. Substitution of the nutritional components for the foods resulted in general linear models with slightly higher R2 values (0.85 for males, 0.77 for females), but with attenuated fat effects. Results are discussed in light of biological plausibility.