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Novel Apparatus and Method for Drug Reinforcement
Published on: August 21, 2010
A ratio estimation method for determining the prevalence of cocaine use
M Gossop1, J Strang, P Griffiths
1Drug Transitions Study, National Addiction Centre, Maudsley Hospital, London.
Summary
This study introduces a new method to estimate cocaine use prevalence in the UK. Applying this technique to drug user samples suggests approximately 116,000 cocaine users exist.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Substance Abuse Research
- Statistical Modeling
Background:
- Estimating illicit drug use prevalence is challenging due to difficulties in obtaining representative samples.
- Existing methods often require sampling frames, which are unavailable for hidden populations like drug users.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present a novel ratio estimation technique for prevalence estimation.
- To apply this method to estimate the prevalence of cocaine use in the UK.
Main Methods:
- A new ratio estimation technique was developed.
- The method was applied to random samples from overlapping populations of cocaine and heroin users.
- The ratio of cocaine users to heroin users (C/H) was calculated.
Main Results:
- The estimated ratio of cocaine users to heroin users (C/H) was 1.55 (95% CI +/- 0.48).
- Using national heroin user estimates (approx. 75,000), the cocaine user prevalence is estimated at 116,000 in the UK.
- The estimates require cautious interpretation.
Conclusions:
- The novel ratio estimation technique offers a potential method for prevalence estimation in populations lacking sampling frames.
- The findings suggest a significant cocaine-using population in the UK, warranting further public health attention.
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