Identifying the residential location of rapists

The spatial offence behaviour of 45 British serial rapists was examined in order to generate a predictive model, of use to criminal investigators. Two alternative hypotheses were explored. One predicted that rapists would commute into an area to carry out their offence. The second predicted that they would "maraud" out from a fixed location. Of the 45 offenders, 39 fitted the "maurader" hypothesis. However, the area covered by this model was an average of nearly 180 square miles. A second complementary theory, developed from facets of offenders' backgrounds, was therefore used to refine the predictions of distance travelled to and between offences. This enabled the size of the residential zone predicted from the marauder model to be reduced to a mean area of just over ten square miles. Tests of these models, combined into a small scale expert system, predicted the correct area for 82% of the cases. Suggestions for the further development of this expert system are discussed.