Hemodynamic predictors of incident hypertension. The Framingham Heart Study

Previous reports indicate that cardiac output is increased early in the course of hypertension. The purpose of this study was to identify with echocardiography hemodynamic features in normotensive adults that predicted the development of hypertension. Framingham Heart Study subjects were eligible for this investigation if they were normotensive at the baseline examination (systolic blood pressure < 140 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure < 90 mm Hg, and no antihypertensive medications) and if they were free of coronary heart disease, congestive heart failure, valvular heart disease, atrial fibrillation, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, diabetes mellitus, and renal insufficiency. The study included 1118 men (mean age, 44 years) and 1559 women (mean age, 46 years). After 4 years of follow-up, of this normotensive cohort, 201 men (18.0%) and 257 women (16.5%) had developed hypertension. In separate, age-adjusted multivariable logistic regression analyses, increased cardiac index (men: odds ratio = 1.19 for one standard deviation increment, P = .03; women: odds ratio = 1.17, P = .02) and end-systolic wall stress (men: odds ratio = 1.24, P = .006; women: odds ratio = 1.43, P < .001) were related to the development of hypertension in both sexes. In addition, increased heart rate in men (odds ratio = 1.25, P = .006) was a significant predictor of hypertension. After adjustment for age and baseline blood pressure, none of the hemodynamic variables was a significant predictor of hypertension. In addition, load-independent indexes of contractility revealed only a minimally greater proportion of subjects with increased contractility at baseline in the group that developed hypertension compared with those who remained normotensive.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)