A trial to discriminate spontaneous regression from non-regression cases during mass screening for neuroblastoma

We tried to discriminate between cases of spontaneous regression and non-regression during mass screening for neuroblastoma, taking advantage of differences in respect to the urinary homoranillic acid/vanillyl mandelic acid (HVA/VMA) ratio and the original tumor site among true positive, false negative and natural occurrence cases. After classifying them into a total of six groups depending on the two factors, ratio: < 1, 1-2 or > or = 2 and tumor site: adrenal or extra-adrenal in origin, we calculated the mathematical probability of a given true positive case being one of spontaneous regression. A tumor of extra-adrenal origin was likely to regress spontaneously, especially one with an HVA/VMA ratio < 1 or > or = 2 (82.2-100%). A tumor of adrenal origin with an HVA/VMA ratio < 1 seemed unlikely to regress spontaneously (0-4%). The present method, employing simple preoperative information, would be useful in future for the selection of true positive cases which should be observed without treatment.