A longitudinal analysis of adolescent smoking and its correlates

When designing effective programs, it is important to identify factors associated with tobacco use at particular stages of adolescence, as well as factors associated with changes in tobacco use. This study examined cross-sectional correlates of smoking during early adolescence and during late adolescence in a longitudinal sample to compare the pattern of prediction of smoking at both stages. Changes in predictor variables related to changes in smoking also were examined. Results showed intentions to smoke was the strongest predictor of smoking during both early adolescence and during late adolescence; however, it was a much stronger predictor for the late adolescent stage. In addition, intentions to smoke was the strongest predictor of changes in smoking. However, the pattern of prediction at the two grade levels showed some differences as did predictors of changes in smoking. Implications for designing smoking prevention and cessation programs are addressed.