[Risk factors of persistent or recurrent bleeding and mortality in peptic ulcer hemorrhage]

The mortality rate of peptic ulcer haemorrhage has remained unchanged, mainly attributed to rebleeding in an increasingly elderly population with more coexisting systemic diseases. The value of clinical factors and endoscopic findings in predicting in-hospital further haemorrhage and death are analysed. Over a 2-year period, 157 consecutive patients were admitted with bleeding from peptic ulcer, 19 died and 37 had further bleeding. The predictive value of each factor was determined by the chi 2 test with a Yates-correction (significant, p < 0.05). Significant predictive factors of further bleeding were shock, a transfusion requirement > 4 units during the first 48 hours and endoscopic stigmata of recent haemorrhage. The combination of these factors was not of better predictive value than shock alone. The number of coexisting illnesses per patient was strongly related to fatality rate. Other significant factors indicative of an increased mortality included steroid, onset of bleeding during a hospital stay, alcohol, further bleeding, and > 4 units transfused over the first 48 hours. Shock remains the most valuable sign in predicting further bleeding and is superior to endoscopic stigmata. The close relationship between the mortality rate and coexisting illnesses underlines the fact that the majority of deaths result from non peptic ulcer disease.