[Short-term prediction of cases of AIDS in Catalonia (1991-1994)]

Predicting AIDS incidence is a useful strategy for health service planning and for the design of preventive and control programmes. The different predictive mathematical models of AIDS can be classified in simple and complex, according to the assumptions used. The present study presents the prediction of the minimum AIDS incidence in Catalonia for the period 1991-94 by means of three simple mathematical models. The models that have been compared are the projection method of Chin and Lwanga, the retroprojection method of Brookmeyer and Gail, and the extrapolation method of Cox and Medley. Baseline information about AIDS cases comes from the AIDS Registry of the "Generalitat" of Catalonia. In a comparable manner, the three methods point out an increase of AIDS incidence until 1994, varying from 1160 to 1733 new cases in that year depending on the method used. We conclude that it will be necessary to increase the provision of health, social and preventive resources against AIDS in Catalonia in the coming years.