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Prospects and programs for fertility reduction, 1990-2015

W P Mauldin1, J A Ross

  • 1Research Division, Population Council, New York.

Studies in Family Planning
|March 1, 1994
PubMed
Summary
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Eight of 37 large developing countries will certainly reach replacement fertility by 2015, with 13 more likely to achieve it. Fertility predictions utilize a composite index of socioeconomic and family planning factors.

Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Public Health
  • Socioeconomics

Background:

  • Fertility rates in developing nations significantly impact global population dynamics.
  • Understanding factors influencing fertility decline is crucial for policy-making.
  • This study focuses on 37 developing countries with populations over 15 million in 1990.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To predict the likelihood of 37 large developing countries reaching replacement fertility by 2015.
  • To identify key determinants of fertility decline in these nations.

Main Methods:

  • A composite index was developed to forecast future total fertility rates.
  • The index incorporated socioeconomic variables, historical fertility trends, and family planning program data.
  • Data included life expectancy, infant mortality, literacy, school enrollment, labor force composition, GNP per capita, urbanization, fertility rates (1985-90), fertility decline (1960-90), family planning effort (1989), and contraceptive prevalence (1990).
Keywords:
Below Replacement FertilityBirth RateDemographic FactorsDeveloping CountriesEstimation TechnicsFertilityFertility Decline--determinantsFertility MeasurementsFertility RateIndexMultiregional AnalysisPopulationPopulation DecreasePopulation DynamicsPopulation ProjectionResearch MethodologyTheoretical StudiesTotal Fertility Rate--statistics

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Main Results:

  • Eight countries are projected to certainly reach replacement fertility by 2015.
  • An additional thirteen countries are likely to reach replacement fertility.
  • Five countries may possibly reach replacement fertility, while eleven are unlikely to do so.

Conclusions:

  • Fertility transition is progressing at varying rates across large developing countries.
  • Socioeconomic development and family planning initiatives are key drivers of fertility decline.
  • The findings provide insights for targeted interventions to support countries aiming for fertility stabilization.