Prediction of caries in 1 1/2-year-old children

The aim was to test the predictive ability of defined levels of dietary and oral hygiene habits and also mutans streptococci and lactobacilli in saliva, separately and in combinations, in 1 1/2-year-old children. The population consisted of 181 children, who were investigated with respect to the above factors together with general health, use of fluoride in tablets and/or toothpaste, gingival condition and caries prevalence. Initially, 99% of the subjects were caries-free as against 72% at the age of 3 years, with a mean of 0.8 ds. Using data for sensitivity and specificity the predictive values for positive (PV+) and negative (PV-) tests were calculated for different levels and combinations of variables. A dividing line between high and low caries risk that combined high sensitivity and high specificity could not be established for any variable or combination of variables. High sensitivity was noted with diet as the predictor, high specificity with oral hygiene or occurrence of mutans streptococci. Lactobacilli were excluded as they were found in only 6 children. A two-step computation with mutans streptococci as second predictor improved the ability to single out children with caries at the age of 3 years. Subgrouping and analyses of the material as regards use of fluoride did not influence the results. To sum up, prediction at the age of 1 1/2 years, in a population with a low caries prevalence, was not successful with the variables used in this study.