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Estimate of perinatal mortality risk
M L Lim1, P M Elferink-Stinkens, H C Wallenburg
1Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Reinier de Graaf Teaching Hospital, Delft, The Netherlands.
Summary
This study introduces a new method to calculate prospective perinatal mortality risk. The findings show risk decreases from 16 to 39 weeks gestation, then increases.
Area of Science:
- Perinatal Medicine
- Epidemiology
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Current World Health Organization (WHO) methods for calculating perinatal mortality do not accurately reflect the risk for a living fetus.
- Existing metrics do not provide a meaningful prospective risk assessment for future perinatal death.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a novel approach for estimating the prospective risk of perinatal mortality.
- To provide a more accurate measure of risk for fetuses at different gestational ages.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the Perinatal Database of the Netherlands.
- Calculated prospective perinatal mortality risk by dividing future perinatal deaths from a specific gestational week by the number of fetuses remaining undelivered at that same week.
Main Results:
- The developed statistic demonstrates a declining risk of perinatal mortality from 16 to 39 gestational weeks.
- An increase in prospective perinatal mortality risk was observed from 39 weeks of gestation onwards.
Conclusions:
- The novel prospective risk calculation offers a more clinically relevant measure of perinatal mortality.
- This approach provides valuable insights into the changing risk profile throughout the later stages of pregnancy.