[Prospects of the cost of AIDS-related death in France (1970-2020)]

Levels of seropositivity prevalence, estimated by the Brunet-Valleron report, are projected through the year 2020 on the basis of 4 scenarios. Cost of AIDS-related deaths is composed of 2 elements: (i) the indemnification to the victims of blood transfusion; (ii) the loss of years of life of the victims. The annual cost of AIDS-related deaths in France can be estimated between 10 and 12 billion in 1989 and between 18 and 20 billion in 1992. Beyond the year 2000, the trend varies according to the development of the epidemic. The cumulated cost of AIDS-related deaths during the 90's will be 10 to 40 times higher than the simple amount of indemnification paid to the victims of blood transfusion.