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Human fertility and population equilibrium

R Lee1

  • 1University of California, Berkeley 94720.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
|February 18, 1994
PubMed
Summary
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Preindustrial populations self-regulated through biological and economic feedback, stabilizing numbers. These natural fertility controls, driven by economic well-being, are absent in developed nations today.

Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Economic History
  • Sociology

Background:

  • Preindustrial societies exhibited self-regulating population dynamics.
  • Fertility responses to population size variations steered populations toward equilibrium.
  • Environmental external costs influenced childbearing and equilibrium population size.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the mechanisms of fertility response to population size in preindustrial settings.
  • To determine the signals influencing fertility and their impact on population equilibrium.
  • To assess the long-term effects of these mechanisms and their absence in developed countries.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of historical demographic and economic data.
  • Examination of feedback mechanisms linking population size, economic well-being, and fertility.

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  • Review of empirical studies on preindustrial population dynamics.

    • Main Results:

    • Biological, economic, and social factors influenced fertility, guiding populations to equilibrium.
    • Economic well-being, not population density, was the likely fertility signal.
    • Fertility responses were weak, leading to slow population adjustments (approx. 70-year half-life for deviations).

    Conclusions:

    • Preindustrial populations possessed inherent stabilizing mechanisms for fertility.
    • These mechanisms, driven by economic well-being, are no longer active in developed countries.
    • Equilibrium population size and welfare in preindustrial times were not necessarily optimal or desirable.