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Projecting future drug expenditures--1994

J P Santell1

  • 1Practice Management Department, American Society of Hospital Pharmacists, Bethesda, MD.

American Journal of Hospital Pharmacy
|January 15, 1994
PubMed
Summary
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Accurate drug expenditure projections require analyzing inflation, generic competition, new drug introductions, and institutional drug use. Understanding these factors improves financial planning for healthcare organizations.

Area of Science:

  • Health Economics
  • Pharmaceutical Policy
  • Health Services Research

Background:

  • Pharmaceutical price inflation has slowed, influenced by potential government regulation.
  • Biotechnology drugs represent a significant and growing cost category in hospital pharmacies.
  • Generic drug competition is a predictable factor influencing future drug expenditures.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To discuss methods for projecting drug expenditures.
  • To identify key factors influencing drug spending.
  • To highlight the need for improved institutional drug use analysis.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of inflation trends (Producer Price Index).
  • Monitoring of new drug applications (FDA) for market release predictions.

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  • Review of legislative impacts (e.g., OBRA 1990, proposed American Health Security Act).
  • Assessment of institutional drug use patterns and high-cost drug utilization.

    • Main Results:

    • Pharmaceutical price inflation decreased from 6.9% (1991) to 4.3% (1H 1993).
    • Biotechnology drugs accounted for 10% of total hospital pharmacy expenditures.
    • Expenditure increase predictions varied for contracted (2.1%) vs. non-contracted (8.3%) drugs in 1994.

    Conclusions:

    • Accurate drug expenditure forecasting relies on a synthesis of economic, market, and institutional factors.
    • Institution-specific patterns of high-cost drug use are critical for precise financial projections.
    • Enhanced methods are needed for pharmacy managers to estimate high-cost drug utilization within their institutions.