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Related Experiment Videos

Competing mortality and progress against cancer

R B Rothenberg1

  • 1National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA.

Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)
|March 1, 1994
PubMed
Summary

Declining ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality has a small impact on rising cancer deaths. Survivors of IHD contribute minimally to overall cancer mortality, with true cancer risk being the primary driver of increased cancer cases.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • Ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality has declined in the US.
  • This decline is hypothesized to contribute to increased cancer mortality.
  • Understanding competing causes of death is crucial for public health.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the interrelation between ischemic heart disease (IHD) and cancer mortality between 1970 and 1988.
  • To quantify the contribution of IHD survivors to cancer deaths.
  • To assess the impact of declining IHD mortality on overall cancer trends.

Main Methods:

  • Constructed a hypothetical population assuming no decline in age-specific IHD mortality risks.
  • Calculated the difference between actual and hypothetical populations to identify IHD survivors available for cancer.

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  • Analyzed age-specific cancer risks and mortality data for individuals aged 20-85 years.

    • Main Results:

    • In 1970, 2.0% of cancer deaths (153,207/7,649,058) occurred in IHD survivors.
    • By 1988, this figure rose to 5.0% (24,053/482,490) for individuals aged 20-85.
    • Among those aged 55-85 in 1988, IHD survivors accounted for 5.5% of cancer deaths.

    Conclusions:

    • The contribution of declining IHD mortality to increased cancer mortality is small.
    • The observed increase in cancer mortality is primarily driven by rising age-specific cancer risks.
    • IHD survivors do not significantly account for the increasing cancer risks in older populations.