Risk calculation of type 2 diabetes

Area of Science:

• Endocrinology
• Genetics
• Public Health

Background:

• Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a complex metabolic disorder with significant heritable components.
• Family history and anthropometric characteristics are recognized risk factors for T2DM development.
• Quantifying these risks is crucial for targeted prevention strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the risk of developing type 2 diabetes based on family history.
• To evaluate the predictive value of anthropometric variables for diabetes onset.
• To develop a predictive model for diabetes risk in obese individuals.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of age at onset in 2024 diabetic patients stratified by family history.
• Logistic curve fitting to model cumulative diabetes onset percentages.
• Logistic regression analysis in a cohort of 390 obese subjects to identify predictors of diabetes.

Main Results:

• Cumulative age-dependent diabetes risk increases with familial proximity to diabetes (random individuals < first-degree relatives < children of diabetics < known diabetics).
• Diabetic males had higher BMI and weight than non-diabetic males.
• Diabetic females exhibited higher weight, BMI, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and age compared to non-diabetic females.
• A predictive model for diabetes risk was established using age, BMI, and WHR for obese women, and WHR for obese men.

Conclusions:

• Genetic predisposition is the most significant factor in type 2 diabetes, quantifiable through family history.
• Anthropometric variables play a vital role in predicting diabetes risk, particularly within obese populations.
• The developed models offer valuable tools for risk stratification and personalized diabetes prevention.