Future manpower needs in caring for an older cancer-patient population

The Minnesota Cancer Surveillance System provides data for almost all cancers newly diagnosed in residents of Minnesota. A statistical method, Population Cancer Risk (PCR), estimates the total number of cancers that will occur in the lifetimes of 1,000 people, based on the Minnesota cancer incidence and life expectancy rates from 1988-1990. The overall PCR is 459 cancers per 1,000 lifetimes of persons born today. By year 2020 the Minnesota population will have increased 12% since 1990, but the total cancer incidence will have increased 60%. As a result, there will be an increased demand for medical oncologists, radiotherapists, and surgical subspecialists. Primary care physicians will play an increasing role in cancer prevention, early detection, therapies, and long-term follow-up. Physician's assistants and skilled nurses will add further to patient cancer management. Cancer patients will be older, on average. The future will include changes in the methods of care of the older cancer patients and in economic, social, and bioethical issues involving older persons.