Risks of premature death from smoking in 15-year-old Australians

This cross-sectional actuarial analysis of 1990 mortality data aimed to estimate absolute risk of premature death from all causes, and from lung cancer, ischaemic heart disease and chronic bronchitis/emphysema due to tobacco smoking in the Australian population, and to estimate the number of current 15-year-old smokers in the 1990 Australian population who will die prematurely due to smoking. Competing risks were allowed for in the calculations. In males, conditional life expectancy for 15-year-olds was 78.0 years in nonsmokers, 73.3 years in ever-smokers, and 71.5 years in smokers of more than one packet a day. For 15-year-old females, life expectancy was 82.0 years in nonsmokers, 78.4 years in ever-smokers, and 76.9 years in smokers of more than one packet a day. The risk of premature death due to smoking in ever-smokers was estimated as 14.6 per cent in males (before 75 years) and 11.9 per cent in females (before 80 years), with lung cancer (male: 4.2 per cent; female: 3.4 per cent), ischaemic heart disease (male: 3.7 per cent; female: 1.7 per cent) and chronic bronchitis/emphysema (male: 2.4 per cent; female: 2.5 per cent) as the major contributors. From one year of 15-year-old male smokers (26,713), 3,916 premature deaths due to tobacco can be expected; this includes 1,106 lung cancer deaths, 991 ischaemic heart disease deaths and 641 chronic bronchitis/emphysema deaths. From one year of 15-year-old female smokers (32,355), 3,861 premature deaths can be expected; this includes 1,086 lung cancer deaths, 559 ischaemic heart disease deaths and 798 chronic bronchitis/emphysema deaths.