South African psychiatrists' criteria for predicting dangerousness

The prediction of dangerousness has emerged as one of the most controversial issues in forensic psychiatry. It is a value-laden and ambiguous concept which has not been adequately defined and operationalized by the law or psychiatry. The validity and reliability of psychiatric predictions of dangerousness have been brought seriously into question in the past few decades. The Booysen Commission appointed in South Africa relates to the problem. An exploratory survey to ascertain the variables which South African psychiatrists perceive as influencing their decisions about dangerousness and to compare these findings with those of previous research was undertaken. One hundred and thirty-eight psychiatrists were included in a survey by means of a questionnaire. Findings that clinicians' decisions were significantly influenced by patients' criminal/violent history were consistent with previous research. The article further evaluates the responses to the questionnaire variables and the degree as well as a study of detained 'dangerous' patients to assess accuracy of evaluations in practice.