AIDS: the statistical basis for public health

The backcalculation method has been extensively used in AIDS modelling and forecasting. Knowledge of reported AIDS cases, information on the time between HIV infection and onset of AIDS, and assumptions on the rate at which infections occurs, can be used to reconstruct the past history of the HIV epidemic, as well as to provide short term predictions of AIDS incidence. Uncertainty in the three components of the backcalculation method and the increasingly available information on HIV prevalence must be taken into account in order to provide realistic projections. In this paper we discuss ways of acknowledging uncertainty and suggest a Bayesian formulation of the backcalculation idea as a means of combining into a single model both random and systematic variation as well as prior information.