Integrated systems analysis of sow replacement rates in a hierarchical swine breeding structure

Sow replacement rates in a three-tiered breeding structure were investigated for a 10-yr planning horizon using a stochastic life-cycle swine production model. Market hogs were produced in a three-breed static crossing program and marketed on a liveweight basis. Growth and reproductive traits of individual pigs were simulated using genetic, environmental, and economic parameters. Sows were culled after a maximum of 1, 5, or 10 parities. Systems were defined by maximum sow age at culling and included combinations of 1- and 5-parity nucleus and 1-, 5-, and 10-parity multiplier and commercial tiers. Economic response to index selection was considerable for all culling alternatives with yearly increases in system profits ranging from $1.06 to 1.44 for each commercial hog marketed. When sows were culled after one parity in nucleus, multiplier, and commercial tiers, respectively (1,1,1), annual changes in net returns and all cost measures were 40 to 50% larger than responses in systems with lower sow replacement rates. Based on 10-yr averages for net returns, systems with low multiplier- and commercial-level replacement rates were more profitable than systems with higher replacement rates. The most profitable system (5,10,10) differed from the least profitable system (1,1,1) by more than $10 per pig, but when the (1,1,1) system was excluded, the range was only $3 per pig. The system with lowest replacement rates supported 3,388 more multiplier and 34,151 more commercial sows from a 750-sow nucleus level than the (1,1,1) system. Output from the two extremes differed by > 664,000 commercial market hogs sold.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)