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World and regional populations

H C Tuckwell1, J A Koziol

  • 1Statistics Research Section, Australian National University, Camberra.

Bio Systems
|January 1, 1993
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

The logistic model accurately fits human population data from 1950-1985. Continued trends suggest a world population doubling in 47 years, reaching 23.8 billion by 2200.

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Population Studies
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Accurate human population projections are crucial for global resource management and policy.
  • Previous models have yielded varying predictions for long-term population growth.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the fit of the logistic model to historical world and continental human population data.
  • To project future population trends based on the identified logistic growth patterns.

Main Methods:

  • Non-linear regression analysis was employed to fit the logistic model.
  • The model was applied to human population data spanning the period 1950-1985.

Main Results:

  • The logistic model demonstrated an excellent fit to the observed population data.

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  • Projections indicate a potential world population doubling within 47 years.
  • The model estimates an eventual world population of 23.8 billion by 2200, with significant populations in Asia and Africa.
  • A 95% confidence interval for the eventual world population ranges from 11.9 to 35.7 billion.

    • Conclusions:

    • The logistic model provides a robust framework for understanding and projecting human population dynamics.
    • Future population estimates derived from this model significantly exceed current United Nations projections.
    • Continued adherence to the current logistic growth trajectory implies substantial future population increases, necessitating proactive planning.