Nurse manpower demand: a review of United Kingdom methodologies

Forecasting the demand for nurses is a complex and difficult problem. However, in a climate of economic cutbacks and disadvantageous demographic trends, it is essential that adequate methods are developed to predict both the supply and demand for nurse manpower. To this end a number of methods have been constructed, particularly in the last decade. In this paper we survey the work that has been done to provide an effective way of forecasting nurse manpower demand. The two most common approaches are from the 'top-down' or 'bottom-up'. However, an evolutionary method which allows for modification and detailed refinement is more likely to provide a means of taking into account the complexities of the system. Finally, we focus on the nursing hours per patient (NHPP) ratio as a possible tool for demand forecasting. This index is easily calculated and is readily adaptable to the bottom-up approach.