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Minnesota population cancer risk
B J Kennedy1, S A Bushhouse, A P Bender
1Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis.
Cancer
|February 1, 1994
Summary
Cancer incidence is rising in Minnesota, with an estimated 459 per 1000 individuals developing cancer in their lifetime. This trend, driven by an aging population, will significantly increase the need for geriatric cancer care.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Gerontology
Background:
- The Minnesota Cancer Surveillance System (MCSS) monitors cancer diagnoses in residents.
- Cancer significantly impacts mortality and morbidity in older adults.
- Population Cancer Risk (PCR) quantifies lifetime cancer occurrences per 1000 individuals.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the Population Cancer Risk (PCR) for Minnesota residents.
- To project future cancer incidence based on current trends and demographics.
Main Methods:
- Utilized MCSS data, capturing approximately 98.6% of diagnosed cancers in Minnesota.
- Employed statistical methodology to estimate lifetime cancer occurrences (PCR).
- Based calculations on 1988-1990 Minnesota cancer incidence and life expectancy rates.
Main Results:
- Overall PCR is 459 cancers per 1000 lifetimes.
- Cancer incidence rates in Minnesota are increasing.
- Over 100,000 Minnesotans are projected to have a cancer diagnosis by 2020.
- Approximately 50% of cancers occur in individuals over 70 years old.
Conclusions:
- The aging Baby Boomer generation will disproportionately increase new cancer diagnoses.
- Cancer care paradigms will need to adapt to projected increases by 2020.
- Geriatric cancer care is emerging as a critical issue across multiple domains.