Birth weight, gestational age and perinatal mortality: biological heterogeneity and measurement error

At low birth weight the variance of last menstrual period based gestational age is wide and the distribution is positively skewed toward higher values. In this study the variance of gestational age decreases rapidly as birth weight increases, skewness decreases and kurtosis increases in approaching the mean of the birth weight distribution. Some of the wider variance and positive skewness of gestational age at low birth weight appears to reflect heterogeneity of intrauterine growth, in which infants with high values of gestational age are growth retarded. We show by partitioning each birth weight group into two groups of infants with different gestational age distributions, that at low birth weight, infants with low gestational ages have higher neonatal mortality rates but lower fetal mortality rates than infants with a higher gestational age for birth weight. The differences in mortality described between small infants at different gestational ages suggest that infants with a high LMP-based gestational age have experienced a slower rate of intrauterine growth. Some authors interpret the distributional characteristics as indications of systematic error in last menstrual period based assessment of gestational age. It appears from this study that the extent of systematic error in the estimation of LMP based gestational age may have been overstated in the past.