Quit and win smoking cessation contests: how should effectiveness be evaluated?

In societies where there are both multiple influences on smoking cessation and a downward secular cessation trend, the attribution of cessation effects to particular interventions poses challenging evaluation problems. Quit smoking lotteries are gaining popularity as mass-reach smoking cessation strategies. Most published evaluations of the lotteries have reported impressive cessation rates within samples of entrants. However, none has considered the possibility that the lotteries merely concentrate a secular quitting trend around a researched event or whether they increase the cessation rate of the whole community from which entrants derive.

Results from a lottery run in a smoking population (n = 101,277) are presented. Of the 1,167 people who entered, 29.2% self-reported being smoke-free at 4 months. These results are considered against a prediction that the campaign might increase the cumulative background 4-month quit rate (708/101,277 or 0.7%) by a minimum of 10%.

It is concluded that such a realistic hope, even if achieved, could in practice never be measured. Implications for evaluating the impact of discrete health promotion evaluations in large communities are discussed in terms of the dilemmas posed by the case study.