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Environmental uncertainty and variable diapause

S Tuljapurkar1, C Istock

  • 1Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, California 94305.

Theoretical Population Biology
|June 1, 1993
PubMed
Summary

Variable diapause strategies enhance population growth rates in unpredictable environments. This adaptation is crucial for persistence in harsh conditions, with environmental autocorrelation influencing optimal diapause levels.

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Response.

Science (New York, N.Y.)·1995

Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Population Dynamics
  • Evolutionary Biology

Background:

  • Environmental unpredictability poses challenges to population persistence.
  • Diapause, a state of suspended development, is a key adaptation for surviving adverse conditions.
  • Stage-structured population models are essential for understanding complex life cycles.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze a stage-structured population model with variable diapause in a randomly varying environment.
  • To determine how environmental ruggedness and autocorrelation affect population growth rates.
  • To compare the predictions of a structured model with a scalar model for diapause strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a stage-structured mathematical model incorporating variable diapause.
  • Analysis of population dynamics under varying degrees of environmental randomness (ruggedness).
  • Investigation of the impact of serial autocorrelation in environmental fluctuations on population growth.

Main Results:

  • In rugged environments, phenotypes with a tendency to diapause exhibit higher stochastic growth rates.
  • Diapause can be essential for population persistence in harsh, unpredictable environments.
  • Environmental autocorrelation influences the optimal diapause fraction: positive autocorrelation decreases it, negative autocorrelation increases it.
  • Stage-structured models predict different outcomes than scalar models, especially at high diapause fractions, due to stage-specific variability.

Conclusions:

  • Variable diapause is a critical adaptation for population resilience in fluctuating environments.
  • Environmental characteristics, including ruggedness and autocorrelation, significantly shape optimal diapause strategies.
  • Stage-structured models provide a more accurate representation of population dynamics with diapause than simpler scalar models.

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