Natural history of abdominal aortic aneurysm detected by screening

A group of 88 patients with abdominal aortic dilation found in four ultrasonographic screening studies was followed prospectively by repeated ultrasonography. The initial aortic diameter ranged between 18 and 70 mm. In 19 patients (22 per cent) the aortic diameter exceeded 39 mm. The mean (s.e.m.) annual expansion rate of dilatations < 40 mm in diameter was 0.8 (1.2) mm; among those > or = 40 mm it was 3.3 (1.2) mm. The expansion rate increased with increasing initial diameter. Thirty-eight patients died; the overall mortality rate in the group was high in comparison with an age- and sex-matched population. One patient died after elective aneurysm surgery but none died from a ruptured aneurysm. In conclusion, in about 80 per cent of dilatations found in screening studies the aortic diameter was < 40 mm, with a low risk of rupture. One annual rescanning of an aneurysm < 35 mm in diameter is sufficient; a high overall mortality rate must be expected.