Otolaryngology manpower in the year 2010

The number of otolaryngologists practicing in the future is particularly pertinent in light of the changes taking place in American medicine today. A mathematical model is presented which projects the growth of otolaryngology manpower in the year 2010, taking into consideration the age distribution of practicing otolaryngologists, death rates, and the current production of residents. This model suggests that there will be a 21% increase in the number of otolaryngologists from 1990 to 2010. The main reason for the increase is the uneven distribution of otolaryngologists by age at the present time, with 49% of otolaryngologists being less than 45 years of age. There is concern that the American medical community is populated with too many specialists and that more emphasis should be placed on training generalists. The manpower issue should be studied in more detail, and future societal needs should be determined so that a rational policy on the growth of otolaryngology can be developed.