Does childhood obesity track into adulthood?

Between 1971 and 1981 the Muscatine Coronary Risk Factor Project measured, in six biennial school surveys, 2631 schoolchildren 9 to 18 years of age. Beginning in 1981, these individuals were measured near their 23rd, 28th, and 33rd birthday. This article examines the tracking from childhood into young adult years of the heights, weights, body mass indices (BMI), and triceps skinfold thicknesses (TSF) of these individuals. Depending on age and gender, tracking correlations for height ranged from 0.41 to 0.97; for weight they ranged from 0.51 to 0.88; for BMI they ranged from 0.58 to 0.91; and for TSF they ranged from 0.26 to 0.58. From 49 to 70% of children in the upper quintile of weight were found in the upper quintile of weight as adults, from 48 to 75% of children in the upper quintile of BMI were again in the upper quintile as adults, and from 25 to 56% of children in the upper quintile of TSF were again in the upper quintile as adults. These measures track from childhood into young adult life, and the majority of obese children become obese adults. However, about 31% of children from the upper quintile of BMI became adults with substantially lower levels, while a similar number of lean children become obese adults. Why some obese children become obese adults and others do not remains an unanswered question. The data presented herein indicate that obesity is often acquired during childhood and adolescence when preventive measures could be applied.