Correlates of genetic risk for non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate

Multivariate analysis was used to determine which characteristics: sex of the proband, sibling sex, severity of the proband's defect or family history, are the best predictors of recurrence risk among siblings of individuals with non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (CL +/- P). Sibling recurrence risks are not significantly related to the sex of the proband. Severity of the proband's defect, classified by the extent of the lip defect (unilateral versus bilateral), was found to be a significant predictor of sibling recurrence, whereas involvement of the palate in the proband's defect was not. A positive family history of clefting (i.e. at least one affected first-degree relative in addition to the proband) and the sex of the sibling were also found to be significant predictors of sibling recurrence. The associations between sibling risk and family history, and sibling risk and bilaterality of the proband's defect appear to be mildly confounded. After adjusting for the effects of family history, the risk to siblings of probands with bilateral lip defects is twice the risk to siblings of probands with unilateral defects (O.R. = 2.00; 95% C.I. 1.25-3.19). A positive family history of clefting increases the risk to siblings by greater than 4-fold (O.R. = 4.49; 95% C.I. 2.74-7.35), after adjusting for the extent of the proband's lip defect. These results provide a rational strategy for identifying subsets of the 'at risk' population which have markedly different recurrence risks. This information is important for genetic counseling, since it allows for more precise estimation of sibling recurrence risks in individual cases.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)