The geriatric "medical and public health" imperative revisited

Attempts to reduce the future demand for institutional care through community services are likely to have limited success. For this reason, health professionals must focus on preventing or ameliorating functional decline in older persons. To focus attention on this aspect of the geriatric imperative, we use an epidemiologic model to estimate the potential impact of existing or potential medical and public health interventions that might decrease the incidence of functional decline. For at least three major causes (stroke, hip fracture, and incontinence) of disability, the potential exists for reducing the incidence and burden of functional disability by a number of mechanisms. For example, treating just half of adults age 65-74 with currently untreated diastolic or isolated systolic hypertension would reduce the incidence of stroke by 2.77% in this age group (or 1,500 fewer cases of stroke annually). The estimates presented indicate the need (1) to better implement those interventions that are known to be efficacious, and (2) to identify and to test new interventions for conditions contributing to functional impairment in the elderly.