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Projecting future drug expenditures--1993

J P Santell1

  • 1Practice Management Department, American Society of Hospital Pharmacists, Bethesda, MD.

American Journal of Hospital Pharmacy
|January 1, 1993
PubMed
Summary
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Forecasting drug expenditures involves analyzing inflation, generic competition, and new drug approvals. Factors like decreasing pharmaceutical inflation and FDA approval times influence future drug spending predictions.

Area of Science:

  • Pharmacoeconomics
  • Health Economics
  • Pharmaceutical Policy

Background:

  • Drug expenditure forecasting is influenced by economic and regulatory factors.
  • Recent trends show decreasing pharmaceutical price inflation.
  • Uncertainty in government regulation and FDA approvals impacts inflation predictions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To discuss the key factors affecting drug expenditure forecasts.
  • To analyze the impact of inflation, generic competition, and new drug entities.
  • To examine the role of recent legislation on pharmaceutical spending.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of Producer Price Index for drugs and pharmaceuticals.
  • Review of pharmaceutical industry analyst predictions for inflation rates.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Evaluation of generic competition using patent and market exclusivity data.
  • Monitoring of New Drug Application (NDA) filing dates and FDA approval processes.

    • Main Results:

    • Pharmaceutical price inflation has decreased, with rates from 2% to 11% predicted for 1993-94.
    • Generic drug prices stabilize at approximately 50% of the brand price.
    • Mean FDA approval times for NDAs and new molecular entities were around 28-30 months in 1991.

    Conclusions:

    • Forecasting drug expenditures requires careful consideration of inflation trends and generic market entry.
    • Regulatory uncertainty and FDA approval backlogs contribute to inflation variance.
    • Predicting new drug product market entry necessitates monitoring regulatory filings and processes.