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An equilibrium model of drug utilization
K W Chan1, A M Walker, R A Yood
1Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA.
Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
|January 1, 1993
Summary
We developed an equilibrium model to understand non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) dispensing patterns. This model helps identify prescription practice issues and predict new drug usage, with new NSAIDs reaching equilibrium within two years.
Area of Science:
- Pharmacoeconomics
- Health Services Research
- Pharmaceutical Policy
Background:
- Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are widely prescribed.
- Understanding drug dispensing patterns is crucial for healthcare management.
- Patient switching behavior influences drug utilization.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop an equilibrium model for assessing NSAID dispensing patterns.
- To identify aberrations in prescription practices.
- To forecast the utilization of newly introduced NSAIDs.
Main Methods:
- An equilibrium model was proposed.
- Observed patient switching patterns among NSAIDs were incorporated.
- The model identified an implicit equilibrium distribution of drug dispensing.
Main Results:
- NSAID dispensing patterns were generally stable between 1987 and 1990.
- Introduction of new NSAIDs and pharmacy co-payments caused temporary disruptions.
- Recently introduced NSAIDs reached their equilibrium dispensing values in under two years.
Conclusions:
- The proposed equilibrium model effectively analyzes NSAID dispensing.
- The model can detect unusual prescription practices.
- It aids in predicting the market penetration of new drugs.