Logistic regression analysis of fixed patient factors for postoperative sickness: a model for risk assessment

One hundred and forty-seven patients undergoing minor orthopaedic surgery were studied prospectively by logistic regression analysis to determine the association of independent fixed patient factors with the incidence of postoperative sickness (nausea, retching or vomiting). Gender, history of previous postoperative sickness, postoperative opioids and interaction between gender and previous history of sickness were significant independent factors for postoperative sickness; history of motion sickness was weakly associated. The probability of postoperative sickness in the first 24 h after surgery may be estimated from the equation: logit postoperative sickness = -5.03+2.24(postoperative opioids) +3.97 (previous sickness history) +2.4 (gender) +0.78 (motion sickness) -3.2 (gender x previous sickness history). (Log likelihood ratio test for 5 degrees of freedom for the coefficients, chi-square = 53.5 (P < 0.001).) It is suggested that the calculated probability for sickness may be a useful addition for balancing patient treatment groups and allowing between-study comparisons.