Electrophysiological indices predict resumption of drinking in sober alcoholics

Eighty-nine alcoholics and 54 nonalcoholic controls were tested on measures of late component event-related potentials (ERPs) using a visual "oddball" stimulus task. The alcoholics had just completed inpatient alcoholism treatment programs and were 21-45 days sober. Approximately 13 months later, subjects returned for retesting; alcoholics were classified as resumers or abstainers based on thier drinking patterns during the interest interval. Using the ERP measures from the initial testing session, alcoholics differed significantly from controls in the multivariate analysis and on P300 amplitude (P3A). Resumer alcoholics showed significantly longer N200 latencies (N2L) than abstainer alcoholics. Discriminant function analyses predicting resumer/abstainer status from N2L, P3A and N1A indicated a 63% prediction rate, chi 2 = 5.67, p < 0.02. Addition of N2L to previously tested psychological and social predictor variables indicated an increase in the amount of variance explained. The results support a biopsychosocial model for understanding and predicting relapse in chronic alcoholics.