[Disappearance of the ozone layer and skin cancer: attempt at risk assessment]

The increased incidence of skin cancer recorded worldwide is alarming. The incidence of malignant melanoma has doubled in Germany every 10-15 years during recent decades, for example, as documented in the population-based cancer registry of the Saarland. In 1989, the incidence was 8.3 cases/100,000 inhabitants a year equally for both sexes. Non-melanoma skin cancer (basal cell and squamous cell carcinomas) showed a similar dramatic increase like melanoma and ranged in second place in the Saarland Cancer Registry in 1989, exceeded in men only by lung cancers and in women only by breast cancer. Their incidence was 93.4/100,000 in men and 55.8/100,000 in women. Epidemiological studies worldwide revealed a correlation between the increase of skin cancer incidence and UV exposure in white populations, and Caucasians living in regions near the equator are predominantly affected by this increase. Recently, incidence values for non-melanoma skin cancer in the USA were reported to be 232/100,000, whereas, for Queensland/Australia even numbers as high as 2398/100,000 (males) and 1908/100,000 (females) have been published. So far, the increase in skin cancer incidence has been related to changes in leisure time habits with increasing UV exposure. In this paper, an attempt is made to estimate any additional future risks for the development of skin cancer as a result of increasing UV radiation caused by stratospheric ozone depletion. Its reduction has been reported to be 3% over large areas of the globe (65 degrees North to 65 degrees South) according to the latest study of the United Nations Environment Programme.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)