Predicting alcohol use in rural children: a longitudinal study

The purposes of this study were to describe the prevalence and correlates of alcohol use and to examine the ability to predict alcohol use among rural sixth- and seventh-grade children. The sample consisted of 625 children from six schools in small Montana towns. Self-administered questionnaires contained measures of sociodemographic characteristics, self-concept, school attitudes, beliefs about the effects of alcohol, and alcohol use. Fifty-eight percent of the children reported using alcohol. Children's beliefs about alcohol were significantly correlated with alcohol use. Logistic regression analysis failed to identify a model having adequate sensitivity and specificity for classifying sixth- and seventh-grade students as "users" and "nonusers" based on variables assessed in Grades 3 and 4. Nevertheless, holding other variables constant, children who displayed both negative self-concept and negative school attitudes in Grades 3 and 4 were most likely to use alcohol in Grades 6 and 7.