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Related Experiment Videos

Effect of temporal perspective on subjective confidence

T Gilovich1, M Kerr, V H Medvec

  • 1Department of Psychology, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853.

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
|April 1, 1993
PubMed
Summary

People lose confidence in success as the "moment of truth" nears. This occurs because increased accountability shifts focus from success factors to failure factors, impacting future regret.

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Area of Science:

  • Psychology
  • Behavioral Economics
  • Decision Making

Background:

  • Understanding the psychological shifts in confidence as performance approaches is crucial for managing expectations.
  • Prior research has not fully explored the temporal dynamics of confidence and accountability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between proximity to a performance "moment of truth" and an individual's confidence in their success.
  • To identify the underlying psychological mechanisms driving changes in confidence over time.

Main Methods:

  • Four studies were conducted, involving students' exam confidence and retrospective performance assessments.
  • Methodologies included surveys at different time points relative to performance and controlled experimental conditions.

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Main Results:

  • Confidence in success decreases as the performance deadline approaches, observed in both prospective and retrospective judgments.
  • This effect was replicated across multiple studies under varying conditions.
  • Increased feelings of accountability as the moment of truth nears were identified as a key mediating factor.

Conclusions:

  • Confidence in success diminishes as individuals approach a performance deadline due to heightened accountability.
  • This shift in focus, from success to failure factors, has implications for understanding regret and decision-making.
  • The findings highlight a common psychological bias affecting self-assessment over time.