[Smoking and mortality: longitudinal epidemiologic study (1975-1991)]

The authors have started a basic screening examination in one of the industrial districts of Budapest in 1975. The district has nearly 100,000 inhabitants. The aim of the examination was to determine the risk factors of lung cancer. 30,566 persons have participated. The health of all patients has been followed up between 1975-1991. During this period 3,573 patients have moved out of the district. On 26,993 patients they have examined the death ratio, the prospective life-span, in the various age groups divided into subgroups according to their smoking habits. They have studied the formation of death rate in the four risk groups determined by them on the basis of the simultaneous examination of more lung cancer risk-factors (risk-free, moderate, high and superhigh risk groups). During these 16 years the death rate both among the heavy smokers and among patients in the high and superhigh risk groups has been two, three, even almost five times higher than that in the non-smoking and in the risk-free group of the relatively younger age groups of the population (born between 1921-1930 and 1931-1938). The knowledge of these connections makes economic calculations possible in respect of life and health insurance.