[The trends by province of tuberculosis in Cuba: 1979-1993]

This study was carried out in order to describe tuberculosis trends in Cuba and its provinces between 1979 and 1993. For this purpose, reports of new cases of all forms of tuberculosis were obtained from the National Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Public Health. In addition, tuberculosis incidence rates and their trends between 1979 and 1992 were determined. The data were analyzed by means of simple linear and exponential regression models. Finally, the percentage reductions in incidence between 1979 and 1992 were calculated and the observed changes were described in reference to the expected values derived from the regression models. The number of new tuberculosis cases reported in Cuba decreased from 1133 (11.6 per 100,000 population) in 1979 to 633 (5.8 per 100,000) in 1992 (a 44% reduction). In 1993, 788 cases were reported (7.2 per 100,000). In almost all the provinces the incidence tended to decrease between 1979 and 1992, and the average annual number of new case notifications fell between 4.0 and 5.4%, although in some, less than 3%. In 1992, the number of new case notifications in the country was 25% higher than in 1991, and the incidence rates in all the provinces were higher than expected. The incidence in La Habana, the City of Havana, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Ciego de Avila, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantánamo exceeded the overall national incidence. In 1993, incidence in the country was 55.6% higher than it had been in 1991 and 24.5% higher than in 1992. Incidence rose in all provinces, and especially in the City of Havana, Matanzas, and Guantánamo. Although incidence remained below 8 cases per 100,000 population between 1992 and 1993, it rose during those years, as it did in other countries. The increase appears to be attributable to the economic crisis that affects the country and to have very little connection to human immunodeficiency virus infection.