Decision-theoretic refinement planning: a new method for clinical decision analysis

Clinical decision analysis seeks to identify the optimal management strategy by modelling the uncertainty and risks entailed in the diagnosis, natural history, and treatment of a particular problem or disorder. Decision trees are the most frequently used model in clinical decision analysis, but can be tedious to construct, cumbersome to use, and computationally prohibitive, especially with large, complex decision problems. We present a new method for clinical decision analysis that combines the techniques of decision theory and artificial intelligence. Our model uses a modular representation of knowledge that simplifies model building and enables more fully automated decision making. Moreover, the model exploits problem structures to yield better computational efficiency. As an example we apply our techniques to the problem of management of acute deep venous thrombosis.