Influence of soil half-life on risk assessment of carcinogens

Risk estimates for contaminants in soil are currently calculated assuming that concentrations remain unchanged over time. In reality, biological and physicochemical processes can substantially diminish contaminant concentrations in soil. For exposure periods typically evaluated in USEPA risk assessments, failure to consider the decline in contaminant levels from environmental transport and degradation can result in a significant overestimation of the average daily dose of toxicant. This overestimation may be up to 2- to 3-fold for compounds with long half-lives (15-20 years) in soil and as much as 40-fold for compounds with short half-lives (0.5 years). Overestimation of dosages affects estimation of cancer risks because of the assumption that the probability of cancer increases directly with the cumulative dose of carcinogen. Thus, assuming static contaminant concentrations in soil adds unacknowledged conservatism to cancer risk estimates and target concentration limits. Furthermore, as significant time may elapse before future-use scenarios could possibly occur, soil half-life can affect the estimation of noncarcinogenic health hazards as well. Therefore, an increase in target concentration limits for some compounds could be allowed and corresponding remediation costs reduced by considering how soil half-life changes the dosage calculation. Specific examples of the influence of soil degradation rates on estimates of cancer risk are presented and the degree of added conservatism imparted to risk assessments through assumption of static site contaminant levels is discussed. Considering the potential importance of this parameter for risk assessment and risk management decisions, soil degradation of contaminants under site-specific conditions should be performed whenever possible and incorporated into the risk assessment exercise. When the soil degradation rate cannot be measured or reliably predicted, an estimate of the degree of conservatism should be made to provide risk managers with an appreciation of the degree of uncertainty in the calculation of risk.