Predictors of waist circumference change in healthy young adults

To identify predictors of a change in waist circumference in a group of healthy young adults.

Caucasian, 121 women and 109 men, participating in a longitudinal investigation of cardiovascular risk factors in parents and their young children.

Evaluations of body weight, waist and hip circumferences, dietary intake, physical activity, cigarette smoking, and alcohol intake were performed annually. Age was recorded and family history of disease was assessed.

For women, covariates and modifiable predictors accounted for 67% of the variance in waist circumference change from Year 1 to Year 3. Women with lower baseline waist girths, lower baseline hip girths, higher baseline body weight, and a greater change in body weight had larger increases in waist girth. For men, covariates and modifiable predictors accounted for 72% of the variance in waist circumference change. Men with lower baseline waist girth, a greater change in hip girth, higher baseline body weight, greater increases in body weight, and less percent of fat in the diet at baseline had larger increases in waist girth. Other non-modifiable variables did not predict change in either gender.

Reducing excess body weight and decreasing weight gain appear to be the most important factors in preventing the accumulation of upper body fat.